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Gozaar
Mehrangiz Kar
Limits imposed on the flow of communication have not been able to keep the separated members of the great Iranian family in the dark about each other. Members of the family still manage to receive and pass on the news. The major piece of news now making its way from mouth to mouth: the people’s morale is high.
Getting just this much news is enough to allow a chink of hope to penetrate the dark wall of hopelessness and open up the possibility that some managers inside the Government, no matter where their political sympathies lie, will incline towards a different course of action that is agreeable to the spirit of people, opening doors of negotiation to a protesting people. But this is nothing more than a hope and a wish. The possible scenarios are endless but one can ponder the future from a number of vantage points and select a few of the most tempting.
1. Civil-protest actions by the people, regardless of their form (not necessarily in the form of street marches) will continue and the Government will continue its crackdown. In this scenario, which is quite likely to happen, not only will people's honor, properties and lives be compromised but the political stability of the Islamic Republic will also be placed in harm’s way. We might even imagine it coming down to a few last stalwarts reduced to hand-to-hand combat to protect the last remnant of the ruling power. Even then, the final inevitable fall will not be long in coming.
2. Another possible scenario is that the Government's insistence on using force to crush the people and popular protests will provide the military forces with enough motivation and suitable pretext to openly take matters into their own hands and enter the ring brandishing Principle 150 of the Constitution, and their interpretation thereof as this being the hour for safeguarding of internal and external security. In that case, the tenuous "republic" would be declared null and void and until further notice, --which no one knows is when-- the president (a semi-elected position) would be pronounced unnecessary and open military power would replace high-level administrative positions in the government. In this scenario, high- and low-ranking administrators would be unable to do anything, let alone Mr. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. In all probability, administrators from any political rank or position who directed any of the imprudent games during the election would reach the end of their political life forever regretting the degree of violence to which they had resorted.
3. Another possible scenario is the playing out of reverberations in the wake of the anti-European measures taken by the Government with regards to recent events. In this scenario, an isolated government devoid of every last shred of domestic and international credibility finds itself unable to live on in the turbulent regional and global order. The economic and political isolation of Iran brings weakness and indecisiveness dragging Iran along such a downward spiral that it has no other option than acceding to whatever conditions and pre-conditions it is dictated. In such a situation, national interests are thrown to the wayside and for the benefit of the system they agree to any ignominy in order to hold on to their position even for a little while. In this scenario, people would benefit from liberation from the shackles of such ignominies.
4. Another possible scenario is that the Islamic Republic will continue to remain in the global arena of politics after complete elimination of "republicanism." In this scenario Government leaders will not only be forced to intensify violence but will also face other kinds of protest which may not be amicable. The economic failure will instigate swarms of jobless people to commit vandalism and protest in an unorganized manner. That is the time when they will truly come to appreciate the value of silent protests and the display of power and dignity by millions of silent people. Nevertheless, as they will soon find out, it is too late to wish it back. Overthrow is the logical consequence of such a scenario and signs of it are indeed gradually starting to appear. In this scenario, dissatisfaction and pent-up anger and old wounds of ethnic minorities and border inhabitants will have their impact.
5. There is one optimistic scenario which perhaps many would not expect and this is that instrumental and critical institutions within the Government, such as the Leadership, the Expediency Council, and the Assembly of Experts, will actually evaluate the situation correctly; that they will turn off the road onto which they have strayed, a road which has led only to the abyss and which has driven people to wandering in the wilderness of insanity. Raising the white flag before a steadfast, mature and valiant nation is certainly more agreeable than acting in league with those very forces who have for thirty years been victimizing intellectuals of this land saying they were aligned with the enemy. A government deprived of the support of its people is left with no alternative except that of bowing before all the conditions put forward by powerful foreign governments. A government without a nation does not last long; even if it kills off all its critics and opponents or forces them to make confessions, it is condemned to fall and fall it will. In this scenario, which is gradually growing into something more than mere speculation, influential organs may form a league and by accepting to hold a free and fair election, in which "expedient supervision" has no place, it may turn to governing the country in a new fashion. Of course, they first need to believe that the nation of Iran is not following the orders of the British and other governments, that the Iranians are a wise, mature and proud people. If they were not, they would not have been able to shake the foundations with their awe-inspiring silence in only two or three days. They have to acknowledge this nation's political maturity, bravery and valor; this Iranian nation is the same nation who brought about the Revolution in 1979. If they insist that these people are protesting at the behest of foreigners, they might do well to remind themselves that this issue has precedents and in 1979, foreign forces in fact prepared the grounds for the mullahs to act. Therefore, they'd be better off closing this debate, especially for the sake of its influence on the younger and dynamic generation of Iranians. They should instead throw open the prison doors. They should release political prisoners and prisoners of conscience from the heavy blows of violence. They should apologize to the people and provide the injured with all the medical facilities of the government, and offer their condolences to the bereaved. They should understand that their ship of power has run aground. It is not necessary that they accept the advice of us "outsiders." There are and have always been people from inside their own circle who have given and are giving warnings. It appears they have made a resolution to steer their ship of power to shore through a river of blood. If so, they should consider the end result. People have not signed a pact to forever accept a government which does not respect their status and honor as human beings.
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